Sentient Partners

Insights · Newsletter · Issue 04

Gas up 9%, hiring flat: reprice Q4 and patch Windows this week

Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September while payrolls grew just 29,000. Reprice trip costs, get ready for Google's Local Services Ads move, and confirm October's Windows fix is installed.

· 6 min read

Owner signal

Prices sped up in September. Hiring did not.

BLS says consumer prices rose 0.6% in September (seasonally adjusted) and 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in one month and drove over half of the increase. It is up 34.2% from a year ago. Core prices (less food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. If you run trucks, a quote you wrote in August may already be stale.

Jobs barely moved. Payrolls grew 29,000 in September and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. BLS also revised July and August down by a combined 60,000. August is now +133,000, not the 162,000 we cited last issue. Average hourly pay is up 3.0% over the year, slower than prices. Your customers feel that squeeze, and so does your crew.

Main Street sees it too. NFIB's September Optimism Index slipped to 97.9, just under its 52-year average of 98.0. Its Uncertainty Index sits at 90, far above the average of 68. Labor quality is the top problem for 26% of owners, and inflation is second at 20%. A net 31% of owners raised prices, and a net 31% plan to raise them in the next three months. A net 8% said they paid a higher rate on their latest loan.

Rates: the Fed's target range is still 3.75% to 4% after the Sep 16 hike. The next meeting is Oct 27 to 28. Plan at today's rate, not at a hoped-for cut.

Retail note: NRF forecasts November and December retail sales up 4.2%, to $1.013 trillion, with 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires. The demand is there, but you will compete for part-time help.

Thesis: costs rose faster than jobs. Reprice Q4 for fuel, hire only for measured gaps, get ahead of Google's lead-ad changes, and confirm October's Windows fix is installed.

Q4 ops: price for fuel, hire for gaps, check your Google leads

Pricing. A net 31% of owners are already raising prices. You do not have to match them, but you do need your real cost per trip. Rerun trip fees, minimums, and fuel surcharge wording this week. Put a short validity window on quotes (14 days, for example) so a fuel spike does not eat a job you priced a month ago. Tell customers why in one plain sentence. People accept a clear reason better than a surprise.

Hiring. NFIB says 32% of owners have openings they cannot fill, and 45% got few or no qualified applicants. Retailers will be hiring seasonal help at the same time. Before you post a job, log one week of missed calls, slow replies, and jobs you turned away. Hire for that gap. If the gap is after-hours calls, it may be a coverage problem, not a headcount problem.

Google Local Services Ads are moving. Google is migrating Local Services Ads (the pay-per-lead ads with the Google Verified badge) into Google Ads as a Performance Max campaign with pay-per-lead goals. It started in August with home services such as plumbing, HVAC, electrical, house cleaning, lawn care, roofing, pest control, and moving. In late 2026 it expands to service-area businesses without a storefront. You still pay per lead, and the ads still show only on Search and Maps. What changes:

  1. Your old LSA performance reports do not carry over. Save or screenshot them now. (Past leads and call recordings do transfer.)
  2. Google emails the account admin 14 days before your migration. Make sure that inbox is one somebody actually reads.
  3. Weekly budgets become daily budgets (weekly divided by 7). Manual max cost-per-lead bidding goes away.
  4. BBB callouts are no longer supported. Add at least 6 other callouts (hours, specialties, payment methods).
  5. Business name, address, and hours now sync from your Google Business Profile. A big name or address change can pause the campaign for a 24 to 48 hour review. Do not rename the business in the middle of busy season.
  6. Allow up to two weeks after migration for leads to settle before you judge results.

Google runs a migration support line: 1-844-205-0011, weekdays 9 AM to 8 PM Eastern.

AI Max, after the September upgrade. Google now lets you preview up to 10 sample AI-written headlines and descriptions from your landing page before you turn text customization on. Use it. If the samples invent a service, a price, or a city you do not serve, fix the landing page first, because that page is what Google writes from. Then decide.

AI used well here is a preview you read before you spend. AI used poorly is ad copy nobody at the shop has seen.

Security: one Windows fix that matters, then the edge

Microsoft's October 13 Patch Tuesday was huge, but one item matters most for a small office. A Windows flaw (CVE-2026-96951) is already being used in attacks. It lets a booby-trapped file skip the warning Windows normally shows for downloads and email attachments. Someone still has to open the file or click the link. CISA added it to its exploited list on Oct 13 and gave federal agencies until Oct 16 to fix it. That is a good deadline for you, too.

Windows 10 PCs get this fix only if they are enrolled in Extended Security Updates. Microsoft now runs consumer ESU through Oct 12, 2027. PCs your IT provider manages on a domain or device management tool need the business version. If you are not sure which you have, ask.

Most of the rest of this month's exploited list is gear at the edge of your network: firewalls, VPNs, and email filters from Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Ivanti, Citrix, and Cisco, plus Ahsay backup server software some IT providers use. You do not need the details. You need one answer from whoever runs your network.

Also on the list: WordPress shipped a critical security fix (7.1.2) on Sep 22, and CISA later flagged that flaw as exploited. Chrome's Oct 13 update fixed 37 security bugs, none flagged as exploited. Apple's iOS 26.7.1 patched a flaw Apple says may have been used in targeted attacks.

Plain English checklist:

  1. Every Windows PC: Settings, Windows Update, Check for updates, restart. Check again until it says you're up to date.
  2. Any Windows 10 PC: confirm it is enrolled in ESU, or plan its replacement.
  3. Ask your IT provider: "Do we run any of these brands at the edge, and are they patched this week?"
  4. Website: confirm WordPress and its plugins are current. If someone else hosts it, ask them.
  5. Phones and browsers: update iPhones and iPads, and relaunch Chrome and Edge.
  6. Keep MFA on email, banking, payroll, and remote access. Test one restore from backup.

If something looks wrong (strange login prompts, locked files, a ransom note), do not handle it alone. Call your IT provider, report it to the FBI at ic3.gov, or call CISA at 1-844-Say-CISA.

Sentient Partners angle

Business Strategy. Intelligent Systems. Measurable Results.

When gas costs more, every wasted trip and every missed call costs more too. Before you raise prices again or add a hire, look at what already comes in the door: how many calls and messages got answered, how fast someone replied, and how many turned into booked work.

That is where we start with local owners. Strategy first, then the right tools to carry it. We help owners choose and set up tools for calls, texts, follow-up, and reviews, and keep websites and Google profiles accurate while the platforms change around them. You approve everything before it goes out.

Sources

Book a 20-minute introductory call
← All insights